Relationship dossier
Belarus
Latvia
Relationship assessment
Belarusian migration pressure and Latvia’s restrictive measures have left relations substantially adversarial.
Belarus toward Latvia
-70Belarusian authorities facilitated irregular migration toward Latvia during the 2021 border crisis, which Latvia treated as a deliberate pressure tactic. Belarus’s close alignment with Russia has also heightened Latvian security concerns.
Latvia toward Belarus
-55Latvia has supported EU restrictive measures against Belarusian officials and entities and strengthened controls at its border with Belarus. Latvian policy has also supported Belarusian democratic opposition amid state repression.
Overall relationship
-65The relationship is shaped by the 2021 migration crisis, Latvia’s support for restrictive measures in response to Belarusian repression, and security concerns arising from Belarus’s alignment with Russia. These sustained disputes outweigh the limited basis for cooperation.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Belarusian actions facilitating irregular migration across the Latvian border in 2021 sharply worsened relations. Latvia has supported restrictive measures against Belarus and strengthened border controls amid security and migration concerns. The relationship is substantially adversarial, with disputes also shaped by Belarus’s alignment with Russia and repression of political opposition.
Areas of tension
- Irregular migration at the Belarus-Latvia border and allegations of Belarusian facilitation.
- Latvia’s support for EU sanctions and other restrictive measures against Belarus.
- Belarusian state repression and Latvia’s support for Belarusian democratic opposition.
- Security concerns linked to Belarus’s alignment with Russia.
Key developments
A migration crisis at the Belarus-Latvia border led Latvia to impose emergency measures and accuse Belarus of facilitating irregular crossings.
Major uncertainties
- The current scope and implementation of bilateral diplomatic and border arrangements are unclear.
- The extent of direct Belarusian government involvement in migration movements at the Latvian border remains contested.