Relationship dossier
Belize
Guatemala
Relationship assessment
An unresolved territorial dispute coexists with a bilateral process for peaceful resolution at the International Court of Justice.
Belize toward Guatemala
-20Belize agreed to submit the territorial dispute with Guatemala to the International Court of Justice, subject to a national referendum, and held that referendum in 2019. Belize continues to face Guatemala’s claim to Belizean territory.
Guatemala toward Belize
-25Guatemala has maintained a territorial claim involving Belize and agreed to refer the dispute to the International Court of Justice, subject to a national referendum. Guatemala held its referendum in 2018.
Overall relationship
-25The enduring structure of the relationship is dominated by Guatemala’s territorial claim and the resulting dispute, balanced by both governments’ agreement to pursue a peaceful legal resolution through the International Court of Justice. The unresolved claim remains a persistent source of bilateral friction.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Belize and Guatemala maintain a relationship shaped by Guatemala’s longstanding territorial claim to Belizean territory and efforts to resolve the dispute through the International Court of Justice. Both governments agreed to refer the dispute to the Court subject to national referenda, and both held those referenda. The legal process provides a channel for peaceful resolution, while the unresolved claim remains a substantial source of friction.
Areas of tension
- Guatemala’s longstanding territorial claim involving Belize.
- Border security and incidents in the disputed area.
Key developments
Belize and Guatemala agreed to submit their territorial dispute to the International Court of Justice, subject to approval in national referenda.
Guatemala held a referendum on referring the territorial dispute with Belize to the International Court of Justice.
Belize held a referendum on referring the territorial dispute with Guatemala to the International Court of Justice.
Belize and Guatemala submitted their territorial dispute to the International Court of Justice.
Major uncertainties
- The timing and outcome of a final International Court of Justice judgment are uncertain.
- The scope and implementation of ongoing bilateral cooperation beyond the territorial dispute are unclear.