Relationship dossier
People's Republic of China
Paraguay
Relationship assessment
Paraguay’s recognition of Taiwan remains the central obstacle to diplomatic relations with China.
People's Republic of China toward Paraguay
-25The Chinese government has not established diplomatic relations with Paraguay and has urged Paraguay to switch recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China. Chinese pressure over this issue, including a diplomat’s 2024 public appeal to Paraguayan lawmakers, has contributed to friction.
Paraguay toward People's Republic of China
-15The Paraguayan government maintains diplomatic recognition of Taiwan rather than the People’s Republic of China. In 2024, Paraguay ordered a Chinese diplomat to leave after he publicly pressed lawmakers on the Taiwan issue.
Overall relationship
-20The relationship is shaped chiefly by Paraguay’s diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and China’s insistence that countries establish relations with Beijing instead. The resulting lack of formal diplomatic relations and the 2024 dispute involving a Chinese diplomat point to a persistently strained structure, while the scope of other direct bilateral engagement is uncertain.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
China and Paraguay do not maintain diplomatic relations, principally because Paraguay recognizes Taiwan. China has urged Paraguay to change that policy, while Paraguay has maintained its recognition of Taiwan. In 2024, Paraguay ordered a Chinese diplomat to leave after he publicly pressed lawmakers on the Taiwan issue. These actions reflect a sustained bilateral divide, though the scope of other direct government interactions is unclear.
Areas of tension
- Paraguay’s diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and China’s efforts to persuade Paraguay to change that policy.
- Paraguay’s 2024 decision to order a Chinese diplomat to leave following his public remarks to lawmakers.
Key developments
Paraguay ordered a Chinese diplomat to leave after he publicly urged Paraguayan lawmakers to reconsider the country’s Taiwan policy.
Major uncertainties
- The extent of direct economic or other government cooperation between China and Paraguay is unclear.
- The scope and consistency of Chinese government efforts to persuade Paraguay to change its Taiwan policy are unclear.