Relationship dossier
People's Republic of China
Philippines
Relationship assessment
Substantial economic ties coexist with a persistent and serious South China Sea dispute.
People's Republic of China toward Philippines
-55Chinese government vessels have repeatedly challenged Philippine maritime claims and operations in the South China Sea. China rejected the 2016 arbitral ruling brought by the Philippines and continues to dispute its conclusions. These actions are a major source of sustained bilateral friction.
Philippines toward People's Republic of China
-25The Philippine government initiated arbitration over maritime claims against China, resulting in the 2016 ruling, and has continued to assert its claims through diplomatic and maritime measures. It has also engaged China in bilateral talks, including discussions on possible joint oil and gas exploration.
Overall relationship
-35The relationship combines extensive economic engagement and recurring diplomatic contact with a durable, high-stakes dispute over maritime rights and access in the South China Sea. Repeated confrontations at sea and disagreement over the 2016 arbitral ruling have kept strategic relations adversarial despite efforts to sustain dialogue and explore economic cooperation.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
China and the Philippines maintain substantial economic engagement alongside a persistent and serious dispute over maritime rights in the South China Sea. Chinese coast guard and other state actions have repeatedly challenged Philippine claims and operations. The Philippines has pursued arbitration and diplomatic engagement while continuing to defend its maritime claims. Cooperation, including discussions on joint energy development, has not resolved the dispute.
Areas of tension
- Competing maritime claims in the South China Sea, including around the Spratly Islands.
- Chinese rejection of the 2016 arbitral ruling on the Philippines' maritime claims.
- Repeated confrontations involving Chinese and Philippine government vessels.
- Disagreement over access to fishing grounds and other maritime resources.
Key developments
The arbitral tribunal issued its award in the case initiated by the Philippines concerning maritime claims in the South China Sea; China rejected the ruling.
China and the Philippines signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in oil and gas development.
Major uncertainties
- The implementation and durability of bilateral commitments on maritime conduct are unclear.
- The scope and status of proposed joint oil and gas exploration remain uncertain.
- The balance between diplomatic engagement and maritime enforcement may shift with changes in government policy.