Relationship dossier
Ecuador
Venezuela
Relationship assessment
Relations shifted from Correa-era alignment to political confrontation over Venezuela’s leadership and diplomatic representation.
Ecuador toward Venezuela
-20Ecuador cooperated with Venezuela under Rafael Correa, including by joining ALBA in 2009. Under Lenín Moreno, Ecuador recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president and expelled Venezuelan diplomats in January 2019, reflecting a sharp policy reversal.
Venezuela toward Ecuador
-10Venezuela cooperated with Ecuador during the Correa-era alignment. In January 2019, Venezuela retaliated against Ecuador’s expulsion of its diplomats by expelling Ecuadorian diplomats, escalating the bilateral dispute.
Overall relationship
-15The enduring relationship has been shaped by a marked change in Ecuador’s political alignment: substantial cooperation during the Correa years gave way to disputes over Venezuela’s government and reciprocal diplomatic expulsions. These shifts make the relationship mixed, with later political confrontation tempering the earlier cooperation.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Ecuador–Venezuela relations shifted from close cooperation under Rafael Correa, including Ecuador’s membership in the Venezuela-led ALBA alliance, to serious political friction after Ecuador’s government changed course. Ecuador’s recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president and the 2019 reciprocal expulsions of diplomats marked a period of confrontation. The relationship has therefore included substantive cooperation as well as later disputes over Venezuela’s political legitimacy.
Areas of tension
- Ecuador’s recognition of Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president
- Reciprocal expulsions of diplomats in January 2019
- Disputes over the legitimacy of Venezuela’s political leadership
Key developments
Ecuador joined the Venezuela-led ALBA alliance during Rafael Correa’s presidency.
Ecuador recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president, and the countries expelled each other’s diplomats.
Major uncertainties
- The extent of practical bilateral cooperation following the political realignment is unclear.
- The scope and implementation of bilateral economic and migration arrangements are uncertain.