Relationship dossier
Egypt
Ethiopia
Relationship assessment
Negotiations over the GERD coexist with a persistent dispute over Nile water and the dam’s operation.
Egypt toward Ethiopia
-25Egypt signed the 2015 declaration of principles on the GERD with Ethiopia and Sudan and participated in negotiations over the dam. It has also objected to Ethiopia’s construction and filling of the dam, arguing that its effects on Nile water flows require agreement.
Ethiopia toward Egypt
-35Ethiopia signed the 2015 declaration of principles and took part in negotiations with Egypt and Sudan. It continued construction and filling of the GERD despite Egyptian objections, leaving the dam’s operation and effects on Nile water flows a major bilateral dispute.
Overall relationship
-30The relationship combines a formal framework for cooperation on the GERD with recurring disagreement over the dam’s construction, filling, and operation. The unresolved Nile water dispute outweighs the cooperative elements of the negotiations.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Egypt and Ethiopia have pursued negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), including signing a 2015 declaration of principles. However, disputes over the dam’s construction and filling and its effects on Nile water flows have repeatedly strained relations. The dam dispute is the main feature shaping the bilateral relationship.
Areas of tension
- Disagreement over GERD filling and operation.
- Disagreement over the dam’s effects on Nile water flows and the need for binding arrangements.
Key developments
Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan signed the Declaration of Principles concerning the GERD.
Major uncertainties
- The scope and implementation of commitments under the 2015 declaration of principles remain contested.
- The prospects for a durable agreement on GERD operations and Nile water flows are unclear.