Relationship dossier
Ethiopia
Sudan
Relationship assessment
Dialogue on border and dam issues continues alongside serious al-Fashaga tensions
Ethiopia toward Sudan
-20Ethiopia has engaged Sudan in negotiations over the shared border and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ethiopian officials have also protested Sudanese military activity in al-Fashaga, keeping the border dispute a major point of friction.
Sudan toward Ethiopia
-35Sudanese forces moved to reassert control in al-Fashaga in 2020, an area claimed by both countries, and border clashes followed. Sudan has also taken part in negotiations with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Overall relationship
-25The bilateral relationship is shaped by geographic proximity and recurring practical negotiations, but the unresolved al-Fashaga dispute and associated military confrontations have been a substantial source of strain. Dam negotiations provide a continuing channel for engagement, though the breadth and durability of cooperation are uncertain.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Ethiopia and Sudan have pursued dialogue over their shared border and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but the al-Fashaga dispute has repeatedly strained ties. Sudanese forces reasserted control in the disputed agricultural area in 2020, followed by clashes and mutual accusations. Cooperation and negotiation coexist with serious border tensions; the scope and consistency of bilateral engagement are unclear.
Areas of tension
- The competing claims to al-Fashaga and associated farming land
- Border military deployments and clashes
- Disagreements over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Key developments
Sudanese forces moved to reassert control in al-Fashaga, followed by clashes and heightened tensions with Ethiopia.
Ethiopia and Sudan participated in negotiations concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Major uncertainties
- The extent and implementation of bilateral border understandings are unclear.
- The scope of recent government cooperation on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is uncertain.