Relationship dossier
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Relationship assessment
A shift from prolonged disputes to an allied relationship, with border and water issues still relevant.
Tajikistan toward Uzbekistan
+40Tajikistan joined Uzbekistan in expanding bilateral cooperation, including through the 2018 visa-free travel arrangement and the 2022 Treaty on Allied Relations. Tajikistan has also continued developing the Rogun hydropower project, which was a major source of past disagreement with Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan toward Tajikistan
+40Uzbekistan participated in the 2018 visa-free travel arrangement and the reopening of border crossings, and signed the 2022 Treaty on Allied Relations with Tajikistan. Earlier Uzbek opposition to the Rogun hydropower project was a major source of bilateral friction.
Overall relationship
+40The relationship has undergone a significant change from sustained disputes over borders, transport and Rogun to a treaty-based partnership. The 2018 travel and border measures and the 2022 alliance treaty provide a durable basis for cooperation, though the history of water-related disagreement and uncertainty about implementation temper the outlook.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have moved from prolonged disputes over borders, transport and water-related issues toward substantial cooperation. The governments introduced visa-free travel and reopened border crossings in 2018, and signed a Treaty on Allied Relations in 2022. Earlier Uzbek opposition to Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower project remains part of the relationship’s history, while the scope and implementation of current cooperation are not fully clear.
Areas of tension
- Past Uzbek opposition to Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower project and concerns about downstream water impacts.
- Border and transport disputes that strained relations before the 2018 rapprochement.
Key developments
The governments agreed to visa-free travel and expanded cross-border movement as relations improved.
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed a Treaty on Allied Relations.
Major uncertainties
- The extent to which border and water-management issues have been resolved remains unclear.
- The implementation and practical scope of the 2022 Treaty on Allied Relations are uncertain.