Relationship dossier
Belarus
Lithuania
Relationship assessment
Sustained political and security confrontation, with disputes over Belarus’s political crackdown, migration, and the Astravets nuclear plant.
Belarus toward Lithuania
-75Belarus has sharply strained ties with Lithuania through hostile government conduct, including the use of migration pressure at Lithuania’s border in 2021 and confrontational responses to Lithuanian support for Belarusian opposition figures. The Astravets nuclear power plant, built near Lithuania’s border despite Lithuanian objections, has also been a persistent bilateral dispute.
Lithuania toward Belarus
-75Lithuania has supported Belarusian opposition figures, including by providing refuge to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya after the 2020 crackdown, and has backed sanctions against the Belarusian government. Lithuania has also opposed the Astravets nuclear plant and responded to migration pressure at its border with restrictive border measures.
Overall relationship
-75The relationship is defined by sustained political and security confrontation since the 2020 Belarusian crackdown, with Lithuania’s support for opposition figures and sanctions opposed by Belarus. The 2021 border migration crisis and the longstanding Astravets nuclear dispute reinforce this adversarial structure, outweighing earlier practical cooperation.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Belarus–Lithuania relations have become severely adversarial, especially since the 2020 Belarusian political crackdown. Lithuania has supported Belarusian opposition figures and backed sanctions, while the countries have clashed over Belarusian migration pressure at Lithuania’s border and the Astravets nuclear power plant. Earlier practical cooperation does not outweigh the sustained political and security confrontation of recent years.
Areas of tension
- Lithuania’s support for Belarusian opposition figures and sanctions against the Belarusian government
- Migration pressure at Lithuania’s border in 2021
- Belarus’s Astravets nuclear power plant and Lithuanian safety objections
Key developments
Following the 2020 Belarusian political crackdown, Lithuania provided refuge to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and supported Belarusian opposition groups.
Belarusian migration pressure at Lithuania’s border led to a major bilateral border crisis.
Belarus began operating the Astravets nuclear power plant near Lithuania, which had repeatedly objected to the project.
Major uncertainties
- The extent of any remaining bilateral cooperation and the implementation of prior arrangements are unclear.
- The future course of border and political relations is uncertain.