Relationship dossier
Russia
Syria
Relationship assessment
A longstanding Russian-Syrian security partnership faces uncertainty after the fall of Assad’s government.
Russia toward Syria
+15Russia intervened militarily in 2015 to support the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad and maintained military facilities in the country. Russian officials have also engaged Syria’s post-Assad authorities, though the future scope of cooperation is unsettled.
Syria toward Russia
+10The Assad-era Syrian government cooperated with Russia’s military intervention and hosted its military facilities. Syria’s post-Assad authorities have engaged Russian officials, but their policy toward Russia is still developing.
Overall relationship
+15The relationship was shaped for years by Russian military support for the Assad government and a durable Russian military presence in Syria. The fall of Assad’s government in December 2024 disrupted that arrangement, leaving the future of security cooperation and the political relationship uncertain.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Russia and Syria developed a close security relationship under Bashar al-Assad, including Russia’s 2015 military intervention in support of the Syrian government and its long-term military presence. The fall of Assad’s government in December 2024 changed the political basis of the relationship. Russian officials have engaged Syria’s new authorities, but the future of military arrangements and the terms of bilateral cooperation remain unsettled.
Areas of tension
- The future status and terms of Russia’s military presence in Syria.
- The new Syrian authorities’ response to Russia’s support for the Assad government during the conflict.
Key developments
Russia launched a military intervention in Syria in support of the Assad government.
The Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad fell, changing the political basis of the bilateral relationship.
Major uncertainties
- The future status of Russia’s military facilities in Syria is unclear.
- The scope and terms of cooperation between Russia and Syria’s post-Assad authorities remain uncertain.
- The new Syrian authorities’ policy toward Russia, including over Russia’s past role in the conflict, is still developing.