Relationship dossier
Turkey
Syria
Relationship assessment
A history of conflict and failed rapprochement, with Syria’s 2024 change of government creating uncertainty about future ties.
Turkey toward Syria
-50Under Bashar al-Assad, Turkey supported Syrian opposition forces and carried out military operations in northern Syria, including Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and Peace Spring. Ankara also pursued talks on restoring relations in 2022–23, but these did not result in a broad rapprochement. Turkish policy toward Syria’s post-Assad authorities remains uncertain.
Syria toward Turkey
-45Under Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian government condemned Turkish military operations and the presence of Turkish forces in northern Syria as violations of Syrian sovereignty. The government’s fall in December 2024 makes the policy of Syria’s new authorities toward Turkey uncertain.
Overall relationship
-50The relationship was shaped by Turkey’s support for Syrian opposition forces and military presence in northern Syria, opposed by the Assad government, alongside unsuccessful efforts to restore diplomatic ties. Syria’s change of government in December 2024 alters the bilateral context, but the durability and scope of subsequent engagement are unclear.
How to read these scores
Scores are rough judgments, not objective measurements or current verification. Directional scores describe government policy and conduct, not public opinion. The overall score is an independent estimate, never an average.
- −100
- Extreme sustained hostility
- −50
- Substantially adversarial
- 0
- Mixed or neutral, supported by knowledge
- +50
- Substantially cooperative
- +100
- Exceptionally close sustained partnership
“Not assessed” means there is no recorded score. Pair existence makes no claim about diplomatic recognition or established relations.
Relationship context
Overview
Turkey–Syria relations were substantially adversarial during Bashar al-Assad’s rule. Turkey supported Syrian opposition forces and conducted several military operations in northern Syria, while the Syrian government condemned Turkish military presence and operations as violations of its sovereignty. Attempts to restore ties through talks in 2022–23 did not produce a broad rapprochement. The fall of Assad in December 2024 created a major change in Syria’s government, and the subsequent bilateral relationship is uncertain.
Areas of tension
- Turkish military operations and deployments in northern Syria
- Turkey’s support for Syrian opposition forces
- Disputes over Syrian sovereignty and control of border areas
Key developments
Turkey launched Operation Euphrates Shield in northern Syria.
Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch in northern Syria.
Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria.
Turkey and Syria pursued talks on restoring relations, but did not achieve a broad rapprochement.
Bashar al-Assad’s government fell, changing the Syrian government and the context for bilateral relations.
Major uncertainties
- The scope and durability of Turkish engagement with Syria’s post-Assad authorities are unclear.
- The future of Turkish military deployments and security arrangements in northern Syria is uncertain.